Sabalenka US Open Favorite Status Doubted by Johanna Konta

Aryna Sabalenka holds a stellar 34-6 lifetime match record at Flushing Meadows. However, former world No. 4 Johanna Konta believes the top seed is not the outright favorite for the upcoming tournament. This analytical perspective shifts the focus from Sabalenka's raw physical power to her recent late-set efficiency drops under scoreboard pressure.

Analyzing the 34-6 Flushing Meadows Baseline and Recent Hard-Court Performance Decay

Sabalenka’s hard-court metrics are historically elite. Her 34-6 record at the US Open reflects a high-velocity baseline game optimized for fast courts. However, her recent hard-court swing reveals a structural dip in efficiency. After dominating early in the 2026 season by claiming the Brisbane title and sweeping the Sunshine Double with titles at Indian Wells and Miami, her holding percentage on serve has shown subtle vulnerabilities under pressure.

According to the latest WTA rankings, Sabalenka remains the tour's benchmark for raw power. Yet, her return-game conversion rate has dropped by several percentage points over the summer. This statistical decline has emboldened lower-ranked opponents, who no longer capitulate to her heavy groundstrokes. As we discussed in our analysis of the Sabalenka US Open Title Bid, maintaining high-octane performance over a fortnight requires mental durability that has recently been tested.

Deconstructing the Sunshine Double Efficiency and the 10-Game Slump

Sabalenka's technical peak in 2026 was undoubtedly her dominant run through Indian Wells and Miami. Her heavy topspin off both wings allowed her to control the court geometry, forcing opponents deep behind the baseline. However, this high-risk, high-reward style requires precise timing. When her physical margins slip even slightly, the unforced error count climbs rapidly, disrupting her match momentum.

This technical volatility was exposed on clay and grass. At the French Open, Sabalenka suffered a shocking collapse against Diana Shnaider, dropping 10 consecutive games to exit the tournament. Her vulnerability persisted at Wimbledon, where she fell to Naomi Osaka. These losses highlight a trend where opponents who can match her ball speed or absorb her initial strike can force her into over-hitting.

Tactical Vulnerabilities in Scoreboard Pressure and the Bejlek Collapse

The most concerning data points for Sabalenka's camp come from her recent North American hard-court preparation. She suffered consecutive fourth-round exits in Toronto and Cincinnati. In her match against Czech youngster Sara Bejlek, Sabalenka surrendered a commanding 4-1 lead in the second set. This collapse was not due to physical fatigue, but rather a sudden breakdown in serve mechanics and shot selection.

When Sabalenka's first-serve percentage drops below 55%, her second serve becomes highly vulnerable to aggressive returners. Opponents like Bejlek and Ekaterina Alexandrova have successfully targeted her second delivery, neutralizing her immediate tactical advantage. This lack of a reliable "Plan B" when her primary weapons misfire is exactly why Konta doubts her status as the absolute favorite in New York. While younger talents like Alexandra Eala face different scheduling pressures, Sabalenka's challenge is purely analytical: stabilizing her mental game when her power-hitting drifts off-target.

Rivalry Matchup & Player Profiles

The head-to-head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Johanna Konta stands at 1-0 in favor of Sabalenka. Their lone meeting occurred in the round of 64 at the 2018 Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, where Sabalenka ground out a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. This match showcased the typical high-octane baseline rallies characteristic of both players' aggressive styles.

Konta's retired status gives her an objective, analytical perspective on Sabalenka's current tactical struggles. Having faced Sabalenka's raw power firsthand on fast hard courts, Konta understands the precise physical and mental margins required to redirect Sabalenka's pace. Her recent comments highlight a growing tactical blueprint that the rest of the WTA field is beginning to execute against the world No. 1.